Rise 2 — 90-Day Weekly Audit
internal · MUD\WTR growth
Single-page audit · /pages/rise-2 · week over week, last 90 days

Rise 2 just hit a 13-week low — and the most recent leg down is a conversion problem, not only a traffic one.

Rise 2 is the #1 paid landing page. Over 13 weeks it ran ~700K sessions and ~$602K in net revenue. It peaked the week of May 4 (88K sessions) and has fallen every week since to its worst week of the quarter. Traffic was cut roughly in half — but in the last two weeks, conversion rate also cratered to 1.68%, the lowest in the window, which is the part the team can actually control.

PAGE: mudwtr.com/pages/rise-2 SOURCE: Intelligems, weekly COMPANION: on-page section audit
700K
Sessions · 90d
~13,400 orders
1.68%
Conv rate — now
▼ 13-week low
$0.73
Rev/visitor — now
▼ from $1.09 peak
−67%
Revenue vs peak
$82K → $27K/wk
~$44
AOV
flat — not the issue

The one read

The decline came in two stages. First, traffic: Rise 2 sessions fell from an 88K peak (week of May 4) to ~39K now — roughly cut in half over five weeks. That's a media-delivery pattern (a big push, then a pullback), not something the page did. Then, in the last two weeks, a second problem stacked on top: conversion rate dropped from ~2.1% to 1.68% — the worst of the quarter — so even the traffic that's still arriving is buying less.

That second stage is the urgent one, because it's self-inflicted and fixable. It lines up exactly with the A/B tests currently live on this page — a CTA-copy test, a brand-new "Sophia" page taking 100% of a segment, and a sticky-CTA variant — several of which echo changes that already lost here. Revenue per visitor is at a 13-week low ($0.73) while AOV is dead flat (~$44), which proves the bleed is conversion, not basket size.

Week over week · sessions (bars) + conversion rate
Five straight weeks down from the May 4 peak

Each bar is weekly sessions; the purple number under each is that week's conversion rate. Green = the volume peak (May 4). Red = the most recent two weeks, now the lowest of the quarter on revenue, orders, conversion, and rev/visitor simultaneously.

75K2.07%
67K1.94%
44K1.81%
48K2.31%
42K1.70%
38K1.69%
39K2.07%
54K2.49%
88K2.28%
75K2.14%
47K2.14%
43K2.05%
39K1.68%
Mar 9
Mar 16
Mar 23
Mar 30
Apr 6
Apr 13
Apr 20
Apr 27
best CVR
May 4
peak vol
May 11
May 18
May 25
Jun 1
Peak volume week Sessions Last 2 weeks (trough) Purple % = weekly conversion rate
The full weekly numbers
Every week, every metric

All figures are /pages/rise-2 only, from Intelligems. AOV barely moves (~$44–46 all quarter), so weekly revenue is almost entirely sessions × conversion rate — which is why the recommendations below are all about CVR and traffic quality, not basket size.

Week ofSessionsOrdersNet revenueConv rateAOVRev/visitor
Mar 974,7311,443$66,0422.07%$45.76$0.94
Mar 1667,2781,197$55,5501.94%$46.40$0.90
Mar 2343,997739$34,3851.81%$46.52$0.84
Mar 3047,6411,013$46,5372.31%$45.93$1.06
Apr 642,466660$30,4921.70%$46.20$0.78
Apr 1337,702587$25,8561.69%$44.04$0.74
Apr 2038,794736$33,0402.07%$44.89$0.92
Apr 27 BEST CVR54,4261,256$55,1202.49%$43.88$1.09
May 4 PEAK VOL88,4171,868$82,3062.28%$44.06$1.00
May 1175,0211,502$65,6082.14%$43.68$0.93
May 1847,482948$42,8072.14%$45.15$0.96
May 2542,898811$37,1162.05%$45.76$0.93
Jun 1 TROUGH39,390613$26,9511.68%$43.96$0.73

Note: the Jun 1 week ends today (Jun 8); the last day or two may be slightly under-reported in Intelligems. But the trend is five consecutive down weeks, so the direction is solid. Pacific time.

Anatomy of the decline
Two different problems, stacked

Separating the drop into its two causes matters, because they have different owners and different fixes.

Stage 1 · Traffic (media)

88K → 39K sessions

From the May 4 peak, sessions fell ~55% over five weeks. Conversion in that stretch held in the 2.0–2.3% range, so this leg is purely fewer visitors — a paid-media delivery pattern (a large push around early May, then a pullback). Owner: media buying. The page didn't change; the spend feeding it did. Confirm with Meta/Northbeam spend-to-page.

Stage 2 · Conversion (on-page)

2.05% → 1.68% CVR

In the last two weeks, sessions fell only ~8% (43K→39K) but orders fell ~24% — because conversion cratered. Rev/visitor hit a 13-week low ($0.73) with AOV flat. This is an on-page/experiment problem layered on the traffic decline, and it's the one CRO can fix this week. Owner: experimentation. Prime suspect: the live tests below.

The likely conversion culprit — live tests
What's running on Rise 2 right now (and what already lost)

Rise 2 conversion slid to a 13-week low at the same moment several experiments went live on it. History on this page is unkind to variants — generic hero/CTA/price/sticky changes have repeatedly lost. A losing variant serving a chunk (or 100%) of traffic would depress blended conversion exactly as observed.

LIVE NOW"Sophia" Rise 2 page serving 100% of its segment (control effectively off, started Jun 8). With control turned off you can't see what it's costing — this is the first thing to interrogate against the conversion drop. OG · Sophia Rise 2
LIVE NOWRise 2 CTA copy test (started Jun 1, 50/50) — exactly when conversion fell. CTA-copy changes have gone flat/negative here before. /rise-2-cta-copy
LIVE NOW"Spicy" themed page for mustache-ad traffic. /rise-2-spicy
LOST −11%Sticky add-to-cart bar on mobile — a rise-2-sticky-cta page reappeared in the data May 25. If this variant is live again, it already lost decisively (rev/visitor −11.3%). /rise-2-sticky-cta-mobile
LOSTHero update / alternate hero image; price-in-CTA — both lost. /rise-2-hero, /rise-2-price
WONWhat has actually won on this page: content edits — the comparison-chart edit (+5.2%) and the "Rise 2.1" rebuild (+6.7%). Not cosmetic hero/CTA swaps. from the full test history
The move: audit each live test's variation performance today. Any variant below control on revenue-per-visitor — especially the Sophia page running at 100% — should be paused or reverted to the proven control immediately. The page has a known winning control; don't let an unproven variant bleed it during a traffic trough.
What to do — in priority order
Stop the conversion bleed first, then rebuild traffic
TODAY Interrogate the live tests, pause any loser

Pull variation-level rev/visitor for the three live tests (Sophia 100%, CTA copy, Spicy). Revert anything below control to the proven control build. The Sophia page at 100% is the top suspect for the 2.05%→1.68% drop — with control off, it could be quietly costing orders every day.

TODAY Get the Meta spend-to-page picture

The 88K→39K traffic halving is a media decision, not a page decision. Pull Meta + Northbeam spend delivered to /pages/rise-2 by week to confirm whether spend was cut, reallocated, or whether CPMs/delivery shifted. That tells you if Stage 1 is a deliberate pullback or an account problem to fix.

THIS WEEK Only test the angles that win here

The history is clear: content changes win on Rise 2 (comparison chart +5.2%, the 2.1 rebuild +6.7%); cosmetic hero/CTA/price/sticky swaps lose. Stop re-running the losing categories. The one high-value untested angle is a message-match hero tied to the ad promise — speced in the companion on-page audit.

THIS WEEK Hold tests to a real significance bar

Across the quarter, almost no Rise 2 test reached 95% probability-to-beat-control because they ran days, not weeks. Set the rule: a variant ships only at ≥95% on revenue-per-visitor; otherwise it's "keep running" or "kill," never "winner." This is what turns the test cadence into actual learning.

STRUCTURAL Instrument the page so it's auditable

We couldn't segment Rise 2 by device or channel via the API, and Clarity had no rows this pull. Confirm Clarity is recording the page and that landing-page-path analytics work, so the next audit can answer "is the conversion drop mobile-specific?" and "is it one ad audience?" — the two questions we can't currently close.

Self-review
Sources: Intelligems — 13 weekly /pages/rise-2 performance pulls · page A/B-test history + live tests
Method: page-only metrics, 7-day windows Mar 9 → Jun 8, Pacific. Revenue ≈ sessions × CVR confirmed (AOV flat) so the analysis isolates traffic vs. conversion.
Held honest: single-page device/channel breakdown unavailable (API path filter returns empty) → Stage-1 "media" cause stated as the likely driver, to be confirmed with Meta/Northbeam, not asserted. Clarity export returned no Rise-2 rows this pull → on-page behavior referenced from the companion audit, not re-measured. latest week ends today; final 1–2 days may under-report, but five consecutive down weeks make the trend robust.
No fabricated numbers. Test "culprit" framed as a hypothesis tied to timing + known prior losses, not a proven cause until variation-level data is pulled.